The Survey of Labor Indicators (EIL) prepared by the Ministry of Labor among 3,000 firms showed that the results of June - in the midst of the exchange "storm" - show the worst level since the beginning of 2014.
According to the Survey of Labor Indicators (EIL) prepared by the Ministry of Labor among 3,000 firms, the results of June - in the middle of the exchange "storm" - show the worst level since the beginning of 2014, when the then Minister of Economy, Axel Kicillof, he let the dollar run. (Jobs)
It's not by chance. Since December, the appreciation of the currency in the country reaches close to 60%. "Expectations show an important setback: the consultations were made at the beginning of July, that is, at the worst moment of the sudden movement related to the foreign exchange market," explained José Anchorena, a man in charge of Labor statistics.
The difference between the proportion of companies that expect to increase their endowments and those that expect to decrease them was 1.1% in June. "There is a significant decrease in relation to last month [in the net job creation expectations]," said Jorge Triaca, the portfolio report. Last May they played the worst moment of the administration of Mauricio Macri in the government.
The EIL also shows lower entry and exit rates than the average, which for Labor technicians is a sign of the paralysis in the decision on hiring or possibility of rotation in companies. It is the wait & see in figures.
But that is not the only negative data. The official numbers began to register a brake in the construction sector, which had been more dynamic during the recovery period at the end of 2017. "There is a slowdown in construction," Anchorena acknowledged today in the classic meeting with journalists the last Wednesday of each month. Construction already showed a slowdown in its growth rate since last January, but April already reflected a fall of 0.1% of workers (500 fewer workers). May was higher: it reached -0.4% (1,600 fewer employees), according to the numbers of the Argentine Integrated Social Security System (SIPA).
The good news, at least for now, is that the registered employment situation (these data do not reflect what happened among informal workers) remains relatively stable, although with a change of sign in the monthly deseasonalized aggregates: from positive to negative . Meanwhile, the interannual data still reflect positive variations -as explained in Trabajo- by the "drag" of the good performance of the economy at the end of last year and in the first quarter of this.
Anchorena preferred not to make projections for the end of the year because of "the uncertainty and volatility" that currently exists in the economy. Yesterday, the Indec informed that the activity fell 5.8% in May, the worst fall of the activity since 2009. They impacted the drought and the exchange crisis. "If there is a stabilization of the macro, something that began to be seen three weeks ago, and towards the end of the year the economy stabilizes what I see is stability in the labor market, but expectations are an alert," he added.
Loss of jobs
The registered workers of the private sector were 5,900 less in May (-0.1%) compared to last April, according to the SIPA. Total employees (including private independents and also public ones) showed a seasonally adjusted drop of -0.1% (16,900 workers less). The two interannual data still show positive signs: total employment grew 1.2% in the year in May (148,400 employees), the lowest rate since April 2017. In registered private employment it advanced 0.8% (it added 50,200 workers ), the worst variation since May 2017.
Not only private workers in a dependent relationship fell in May. The self-employed and monotributistas showed negative seasonally adjusted rates of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The public sector reflected a decline of 0.2% in May (4,900 workers less) compared to April. In the inter-annual measure, it advanced 0.5% (+16,500 employees). In absolute terms, it is about half of what was growing, as explained in Work on the work that was done with the provinces (main employers in the State) in the fiscal consensus.
As for the sectors, construction, as already mentioned, fell by 0.4% in the month, while the Industry lost 3,400 workers (-0.3%). Trade also fell (-0.1%), and Hotels and Restaurants (-0.3%). Most of the major sectors, minus industry, continue to show interannual improvements in employment.
The future perspectives
"In the set of agglomerates surveyed, formal private employment presents a monthly negative variation (-0.1%) in June 2018 for the fifth consecutive month," the June EIL begins. "Compared with the same month of 2017, an increase of 0.3% is observed," the official report indicated.
According to the survey, the fall of the sectors is more pronounced in June. For example, Construction is already down -0.9 percent. Financial Services also fall back to Companies and Industry.
Except for the Bahía Blanca area, all agglomerates reflect numbers in red by June, an advance of those that could be brought by the official SIPA records, taking into account the impact of the financial crisis on the Argentine economy and its labor market.
Extra Sources:
Visit Career Malls for New Pakistan Jobs Newspaper ad:
Comments
Post a Comment